Almost go time.
What will decide Duke’s opener against Temple?
Here are three things I’ll be looking for. I’m sure I could come up with three more equally valid. But here’s my three.
1.Can Duke respond to adversity?
We’re all familiar with Mike Tyson’s famous line “everybody has a plan until they get hit in the face.”
Duke hasn’t done well in that area recently. This was openly discussed last year in media conferences and players and coaches acknowledged the premise. A bad play or two and Duke slumped and then all too often fell apart. You could see it in the body language, drooped shoulders and averted glances. You could see it from the stands and the press box and the TV.
And then you could see it on the field.
The coaches said they were addressing the issue. But it never got fixed.
Mike Elko and staff are taking the approach of working through the problem. Pump more iron, finish every drill, every play, every rep and don’t just finish them, finish them with energy and enthusiasm. Don’t quit in practice and you’ll find a way to fight through fatigue and bad plays and a scoreboard that doesn’t look good during games.
2. Can Duke hit some home runs?
There are lots of ways to put points on the board. A great way is the 15-play, 80-yard TD drive that consumes seven minutes and grinds the opposing defense into dust.
But a lot has to go right for that to happen. One missed block, one dropped pass, a sack, a holding penalty and here comes the punting unit.
Running back Mataeo Durant was Duke’s home-run hitter last season, at least early on, before opposing defenses stacked up to stop him and the toll of hit after hit manifested itself.
And he’s gone. Is there a replacement on the roster?
Running back Jaylen Coleman was a North Carolina state champion in the 100-meter dash, at 10.83.
That’s not going to scare Usain Bolt. But it’s fast enough to do some damage in the ACC.
If the offensive line can give him some room to run and if Coleman still has that speed after Achilles surgery, maybe he’s a weapon.
But Duke absolutely has to be able to hit some shots down the field. Duke has had some pretty good possession receivers in recent years. Jake Bobo-he’s at UCLA now-caught 74 passes last season, one of the best seasons in school history.
But Bobo averaged less than 11 yards per reception and scored only once.
Jalon Calhoun turned a short pass into an 80-yard TD against North Carolina. But he still averaged a modest 12.8 yards per reception and that catch against the Tar Heels was the only reception longer than 48 yards last season by a wide receiver.
Does Duke have anyone this season who can stretch defenses down field, someone who can make cornerbacks quake and defensive coordinators lose sleep?
A great big maybe on that.
It could be sophomore Sahmir Hagans. He had only one catch last season in four games, the better to preserve a potential redshirt.
But he had a big spring and a big fall and he’s jumped ahead of some veterans to reach first-team status.
Then there’s converted quarterback Jordan Moore. We know Moore can be spectacular in the open field. But he’s learning a new position.
Still, Mike Elko says Duke is going to use Moore.
“Jordan is such a special football player, a special athlete, that we’ve tried to figure out how to utilize him. We’re going to make sure we get the ball in his hands. He can play wideout, he can play running back, obviously he can play quarterback. It gives us a little more freedom to move him around. I think maybe last year it was a little bit easier to target him and know where he was going to be. I think now we have a little more flexibility.”
Moore is fine and dandy with that.
“I’m having a lot of fun. It feels like backyard football really when I’m out there. If the coaches trust me to put me in those positions, then I have confidence in myself to make the plays.”
3..Last and most important, can Duke win the turnover battle?
Duke hasn’t been very good recently at protecting the ball on offense or forcing turnovers on defense. In fact Duke was historically bad in that area in 2020. So, maybe just being bad in 2021--minus seven-was a step in the right direction.
But Duke has to get better.
Elko said that protecting the ball has to be like breathing, something so ingrained in the psyche that it’s automatic.
“There’s no greater statistic that indicates winning and losing than the turnover battle. I think teams that were plus one in the ACC last year were 34 and 10. You win the turnover battle, you win football games. You lose the turnover battle, you lose football games. It’s been a day-one emphasis. It’s starting to get where it needs to be but it’s not probably completely there yet.”
Quarterback Riley Leonard will have a big say in winning that turnover battle.
“That’s been a priority. The coaches this year aren’t the ones holding us accountable. It’s our own teammates. We make sure of that, always keeping the ball high and tight, wrist above elbow. I touch the ball every play and I have to keep it out of jeopardy.”
Many young quarterbacks struggle with accepting the idea that sometimes a play just isn’t going to work.
“Our offensive coach and quarterback coach (Kevin Johns) has done a great job of teaching that. Throwing the ball away is okay.”
On the other side of the ball, Elko says the key to forcing turnovers is being around the ball. Duke is working on gang tackling in which the second man to the ball tries to strip it.
In the passing game Duke wants to put pressure on the quarterback, sacks if they come, otherwise put the quarterback under duress and force him into a bad decision.
And Duke is prepared to switch up defenses to accomplish that.
Defensive coordinator Robb Smith says Duke will use different sets and different groups but getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks is essential.
“We’ve got to be able to disrupt throws, to get hands in the quarterback’s face. We have different ways to put pressure on the quarterback. I think we can do that with a combination of three, four and five-man rush.”
It should help that transfers Darius Joiner (Western Illinois) and Datrone Young (Iowa State) and true freshman Chandler Rivers have brought some new blood to the defensive backfield.
“Every day we work on ball obstruction, interceptions, how we can create turnovers for our team,” Joiner said. “If we do get those turnovers, we’re going to be in a bowl game.”
That’s hardly the end of the laundry list of course. Duke needs to run the football effectively near the goal line and good special-teams play frequently wins close games.
But winning the turnover battle, getting some explosives on offense and reacting well to adversity are three things I’ll be keeping a close eye on.
Solid three keys, Jim. Turnovers have destroyed the team the past few seasons and lack of explosive plays has put pressure on the offense.
I will add two more:
1. Red Zone scoring - can Duke turn Red Zone possessions into touchdowns?
2. Defensive line performance - can Duke stop opponents from running between the tackles and create a pass rush. Other fans have told me the DL will be fine but I remain in “show me” mode.