What do Duke’s six incoming freshmen have in common?
Lots of things, actually. But I’m going to zero in on one. All six expect to play in the NBA some day.
That may not be an unrealistic assumption. No fewer than 26 former Duke players suited up in a regular-season NBA game this past season, with another half-dozen or so NBA adjacent.
It hasn’t always been that way. Jeff Mullins and Jack Marin were standouts in the late 1960s and first half of the 1970s. But otherwise much of the 1970s was pretty fallow for Duke. Gary Melchionni and Tate Armstrong had brief stints in the NBA, Mark Crow whatever is less than brief. By 1980 Jim Spanarkel was the only former Duke player in the NBA.
That number trended up when Mike Gminski, Gene Banks and Kenny Dennard hit the pros. Then Mike Krzyzewski’s dynasty started sending talents like Johnny Dawkins, Mark Alarie, Danny Ferry, Alaa Abdelnaby, Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill and Cherokee Parks to the league.
Careful observers will note that all of these players stayed four years at Duke. For two decades or so the new normal has been for the best Duke players to hit the draft short of four years. There have been exceptions. Mason Plumlee (2013) and Grayson Allen (2018) were first-round draft picks following their senior seasons at Duke. As recently as 2022 Wendell Moore parlayed a three-year Duke stint into a first-round slot.
But they’ve been outliers. Sixteen of those 26 NBA players were Duke one-and-dones; four more only played two seasons at Duke.
Those one-and-dones have been the core of Duke’s NBA “Brotherhood.” Six former Blue Devils averaged at least 20 points per game this season and all six were OADs.
Jayson Tatum didn’t have the greatest Duke career. In fact he was barely third-team All-ACC in 2017 and lost the ACC’s Freshman of the Year award to NC State’s Dennis Smith. Tatum was injured in the preseason and it took him some time to get up to speed.
But by the time he did he was Duke’s best player by the end of the season and leveraged that into being the third pick in the NBA draft; Markelle Fultz went number one, Lonzo Ball number two.
Think somebody might like a do-over?
Because Tatum has become an absolute monster with the Celtics, a versatile alpha forward who can get to the rim at will, knock down 3s and close out games from the foul line. He led the Celtics with 26.9 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, while adding 4.9 assists per game. The Celtics went 64-18, the league’s best record by a fair margin.
NBA pundits seem to have anointed Denver’s Nikola Jokic as the presumptive MVP. But Tatum is the best player on the best team and that should count for something, at least first-team All-NBA.
Tatum is 26 so it’s not unreasonable to think that there’s better to come.
Then there’s Zion Williamson. The narrative at the beginning of the season was that Williamson was yesterday’s news, overweight, disinterested, always injured/
Think again. Williamson slimmed down, regained his focus and became the player we all fell in love with at Duke. Williamson played 70 games for New Orleans, averaging 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game, playing point forward, while shooting 57% from the field.
Reset successful.
Brandon Ingram was Williamson’s running mate most of the season, averaging 20.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. But Ingram missed some time late in the season, came back just in time for the postseason.
Kyrie Irving again filled the stat sheet as a complementary player to a superstar, this time Luca Doncic instead of LeBron James. Irving averaged 25.6 points and 5.2 assists per game per Dallas, while largely avoiding the off-court controversies that have marred his career in recent years.
With rookie Dereck Lively II (8.8 peg, 6.9 reg) sharing the center spot with Daniel Gafford, this could be a team for Duke fans to follow in the playoffs.
Tatum, Williamson and Ingram are all on the right side of 30. If their future is bright, well Paolo Banchero is going to have to wear shades. The top pick in the 2022 draft, the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year, Banchero made his first all-star game this season, averaging 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 rebounds per game, leading Orlando to their first playoff appearance since 2020. Orlando hasn’t won a playoff series since 2010. They open against Cleveland.
Banchero shares the front-court with center Wendell Carter (11 ppg, 6.9 rpg). Another team for Duke fans to root for.
Did I mention that Banchero is 21 years old?
R. J. Barrett isn’t going to the playoffs. The Knicks traded him to the Toronto Raptors in mid-season. Barrett had a career-best 20.2 points per game and returned to his native Canada. But he also lost his brother Nathan to an illness last month.
Barrett wasn’t the only member of the Blue Devil family to suffer a personal tragedy. Lively’s mother passed away after a long battle with cancer.
In addition to these six players no fewer than nine other former Duke players averaged at least 10 points per game. Brothers Tyus (Washington) and Tre (San Antonio) Jones were solid point guards for truly bad teams. Tyus was ninth in the league in assists (7.3 pg), Tre 18th (6.2). Oft-injured Marvin Bagley III got traded from bad Detroit to bad Washington but played well enough to revive his career. Jalen Johnson (16 ppg, 8.7rpg) became a starter for Atlanta and a cornerstone of their on-going rebuilding efforts.
Then there’s Grayson Allen. The sixth-year guard ended up in Phoenix, where we wondered how he would share the ball with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
Just fine it turned out. Allen averaged a career-best 13.5 points per game and led the NBA by making 46.1% of his 3-pointers. In doing so he dethroned former Duke teammate Luke Kennard, who led the league in that category in 2022 and 2023. Kennard (11 ppg) was second this year at 45%.
J. J. Redick led the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage in 2016, giving former Devils four of the last nine titles in that category.
It wasn’t all good news. Mark Williams (12.7 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg) looked like he was developing into one of the league’s best young big men. But the second-year Hornets center missed most of the season with a back injury. New Jersey rookie Dariq Whitehead missed most of the season following foot surgery. Seth Curry was traded back home to Charlotte but was shut down shortly after with an ankle injury. Wendell Moore, Jr. (Minnesota) and A.J. Griffin (Atlanta) spent the bulk of the season firmly glued to the bench, their NBA futures uncertain.
And there are the guys who didn’t make an NBA roster. D.J. Steward and Trevor Keels spent the entire season in the G-League.
Fun fact. Either or both could still be at Duke.
Justise Winslow played 20 games in the G-League in a comeback attempt. There were rumors of a Rodney Hood comeback but nothing seems to have come of it. Jabari Parker gave it a try in the preseason but ended up in Barcelona. Vernon Carey, Jr. likewise looked east, spending the season in Turkey.
The NBA’s unique play-in system began Tuesday night with seventh-seed New Orleans hosting LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the eighth-seeded Lakers.
Williamson was dominant, the best player on a floor that included two future hall-of-famers. But with about three minutes left he tied the game with the last of his 40 points and went to the sidelines with a hamstring injury.
The Lakers pulled away for a 110-106 win. New Orleans can still advance to the playoffs with a winner-take-all match Thursday against Sacramento.
Williamson has been ruled out for the Sacramento game. Ingram is back but is still rusty and didn’t play down the stretch against the Lakers, even after Williamson went out.
New Orleans does have home-court. Should they beat Sacramento Oklahoma City awaits.
Williamson could conceivably return in a few weeks if the Pelicans are still playing, which seems like a big ask.
Atlanta plays Chicago in the play-in Wednesday night. Johnson is not expected to play; ankle injury.
Even without Williamson Duke fans have plenty of players and teams to root for, Banchero and Carter at Orlando, Irving and Lively at Dallas, Mason Plumlee with the Clippers, Cam Reddish with the Lakers.
But Tatum will be a focal point, perhaps the focal point on the playoffs. The Celtics have captured 17 NBA titles. The franchise of Bill Russell, Bob Cousy, Sam Jones, John Havlicek, Dave Cowens, Larry Bird and Kevin McHale doesn’t bestow laurels for almost.
But the Celtics haven’t won it all since 2008, only one title since 1986. This isn’t a one-man show in Boston, not by any means. Tatum is surrounded by a lot of talent. But he’s the straw. Best player on best team. No former Duke player has ever been the best player on an NBA title team. Can Jayson Tatum be the one to end that?
We’ll know by mid-June, maybe later. Game seven of the finals is scheduled for June 23. A true four-season season.
So buckle that seat belt.