Looking at 2025-'26 Duke women's hoops
Could be a special season
Champions are made in the off-season.
How does this off-season look for the Duke women’s basketball team?
First, Duke needs to channel its inner Joe Tex and hold on to what it’s got.
Then it’s strength-and-conditioning, skills coaches, long runs on the beach, that sort of thing. Get better individually, then get better collectively.
Let’s go to the scorecard.
Duke had seven players average at least 21.6 minutes per game this past season, with two more in low double figures and a 10th just below eight. Three more players got mop-up minutes, one a walk-on.
Reigan Richardson is the only player in that top seven to exhaust her eligibility. A former McDonald’s All-American from Charlotte, Richardson began her career at Georgia before using her final three seasons at Duke.
The 5-11 wing was a solid player at Duke, sometimes better than solid. But she struggled with confidence issues and consistency and never reached the stardom many--myself included--thought was within her grasp. She ended her college career shooting 3 for 13 against South Carolina, 9.7 points per game for the season.
But that’s it. Duke can return forwards Toby Fournier, Delaney Thomas, Jadyn Donovan and guards Ashlon Jackson, Oluchi Okananwa and Taina Mair.
That next tier has already lost Vanessa de Jesus, who entered the portal. She had already walked with Richardson on Senior Day, so I think Duke had moved on. De Jesus was an inspirational player, partly for her ability to maximize her limited physical skills into being an ACC contributor and partly for her dogged recovery from ACL surgery. Great leader, great person, wish her the best.
Also entering the portal are oft-injured freshman Janessa Cotton and Belgian point guard Louann Battison, who saw the court for 45 and 41 minutes respectively this season.
Joining the returning list—fingers crossed-are guard Emma Koabel and forward Jordan Wood.
That’s the core of a championship team. Jackson, Okananwa and Fournier have star potential.
Jackson will be a senior next season and was Duke’s best all-around player last season. She averaged 12.4 points, 2.1 assists and a team-best 29.0 minutes per game. She was on the court that much because Kara Lawson trusted her. Lawson called her the best perimeter defender on the team. She made 37% of her 3s, 87% of her foul shots and only turned it over 2.0 times per 40 minutes, the best total of anyone in Duke’s top nine and she had the ball in her hands a lot.
Has she maxed out?
Darned if I know. She’s not an elite run-jump athlete. But she’s quick enough to get to the foul line more than 1.8 times per game. More than half of her shots were 3-pointers. She’s great at letting the game come to her. She told me one of her strengths is figuring out what the team needs and then trying to deliver. Truly great players seize the game but that may not be in her DNA.
Okananwa is an elite run-jump athlete. The 5-10 rising junior is absolutely unstoppable in transition when she ‘s under control and she rebounds better than anyone her size has any right to. She was named most valuable player in the 2025 ACC Tournament. Her game showed more maturity as a sophomore, more under control, less frenzy. She fouled less, turned it over less, had more steals, more assists.
But she’s not a great shooter. She’s not a liability. But she made 30% from beyond the arc this past season, 70% from the line, both declines from her freshman season.
Improvements can be made in that area and if so, she’s another potential star.
Mair will join Jackson as a steadying senior presence next season. A solid defender, she led Duke with 3.6 assists per game. There was a span in the middle of the regular season when she was posting Ty Jones-level assist-to-turnover stats. But she regressed late.
Koabel is another presumptive senior leader. She’s capable of giving Duke some instant offense off the bench. But she was 8 for 32 from beyond the arc last season and it’s hard to see her getting much PT that way.
A trio of rising juniors anchor the post rotation. Delaney Thomas and Jordan Wood are consummate complementary players, finding open spaces, battling bigger players inside and minimizing mistakes.
Donovan is one of the most perplexing players I’ve ever seen at Duke. She’s a great athlete, Duke’s leading rebounder and shot blocker, playing power forward at a listed six-feet even that might be generous at that. She has the heart of a warrior.
But she simply cannot shoot. Through two seasons at Duke she’s made 41.8% of her foul shots and has never attempted a 3-point shot. She converts a decent percentage close to the basket. But he field-goal percentage dropped from 55% as a freshman to 45% as a sophomore.
Too valuable on D to sit and if she could ever fix that funky shooting motion, watch out. But she just finished her sophomore year in college and the clock is ticking.
Which brings me to Fournier, the most exciting talent of Lawson’s tenure. The 2025 ACC Freshman of the Year, the 6-2 Ontario native led Duke with 13.2 points per game.
It’s even more impressive when one considers that she only averaged 20.2 minutes per game. Kick that up into the low-30s and she might average 20 points per game, or close to it. Fournier edged Donaovan in rebounds and blocks per minute. She also made 6 of 14 from 3, somewhat surprising considering her pedestrian 65% foul-shooting percentage.
Can she shoot 43% from 3 on a higher volume?
Fournier can and should get better in so many areas as she matures, fewer fouls, better defensive rotations and most importantly passing; she had only 14 assists all season. Imagine how potent Duke’s offense can be if she can learn to pass better out of the double team.
Duke will add one player to that group. Or three.
Not a trick question. Duke had two McDonald’s All-Americans sit out the entire season with injuries, ACLs of course. Ari Roberson is the only true center on the roster, a 6-4 Texan who would have been a freshman this season. Riley Nelson is a 6-2 forward who transferred from Maryland, Duke’s only portal addition this season. She came to College Park with the reputation as a shooter. But she hasn’t played since January 14, 2024.
Will rust be a concern for either? Or both?
I saved the best for last. Well, hopefully the best.
Lawson was a great college point guard and a very good professional and international point guard. I thought she would have to fight off top prep point guards with the proverbial stick once she took over at Duke.
Better late than never. Duke’s only signee is Emilee Skinner, a 6-0 guard from Utah, not exactly a Duke recruiting hotbed. She’s a top-10, maybe top-five recruit, dynamic with the ball, great skill set, high basketball IQ, competitive as all get-out. She’s a winner. Her Ridgeline High School (Cedar City) team was undefeated state champions this past season.
Unless there’s some unexpected attrition, it’s hard to see how Duke can offer much playing time in the portal. Maybe a big as a hedge against Roberson not being ready. Maybe a sniper who can shoot better than 25% from beyond the arc.
The pieces are there. I would expect Duke to be preseason ACC number one and top-five or six nationally.
Lawson’s M.O. at Duke has been depth and defense. Skinner, Roberson and Nelson are all going to have to show their defensive bona fides to see the floor. Duke’s offense was the best it’s been in Lawson’s tenure, albeit with a big drop-off in the NCAAs.
But that trend line is positive.
At the highest level women’s college basketball is star-centric. Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese, Page Bueckers, Aliyah Boston, Sarah Strong. Even that committee-like South Carolina team that won it all in 2024 had Kamilla Cardoso make All-America.
You have to have a supporting cast of course. Last week UCLA’s star Lauren Betts had 26 points against a UConn team that swallowed up her teammates and cruised to victory.
But the question has to be asked. Lawson has never come close to having an All-American. Can Duke be the exception that proves the rule, a championship team with no one averaging 30 minutes or 14 points per game?
If not, does Duke have that player on the roster? Skinner? Looks like it. But we’ll have to see her against college competition to be sure.
Fournier? Definitely. But is next year too soon for a sophomore and a freshman to carry that weight? In today’s climate you have got to strike while the iron is hot because the portal can cool off the iron in a hurry.
But right now Duke women’s basketball is in the best place it’s been since Chelsea Gray ended her 2013-’14 season with her second knee injury. Next season will mark two decades since Duke’s last Final Four appearance and that’s too long for a program that was once considered elite and seems to be heading back to that level.