There’s a lot to untangle about Duke’s 63-59 loss to North Carolina in the ACC regular-season finale.
And some of it is promising for Duke.
But it’s still a loss, one that drops Duke to 19-10 in the ACC and seventh seed in Greensboro.
And it’s a loss with some reoccurring themes.
Duke had another horrendous start, too many turnovers, some missed layups, some botched fast breaks.
And did I mention Duke’s leading scorer on the season scored two points on 1 for 9 shooting?
And somehow Duke had a chance to tie with about six seconds left when Kennedy Brown rebounded a missed Taina Mair foul shot with Duke down 61-59. But Brown couldn’t get the follow shot over the rim and Deja Kelly closed out the game with two foul shots.
The rivalry game could hardly have started worse for Duke. It was 4-0 Tar Heels, then 7-3, then 13-5, then 17-7 at the end of the first.
Duke shot 3 for 15 in the first quarter, with four turnovers.
From where I was sitting up in the rafters it looked like Duke was tight, especially on offense.
But there’s an alternate explanation. Carolina played some 2-3 zone, some 2-1-2, some 2-2-1, some matchup and it took Duke some time to figure out how to attack that.
“They were in a different zone,” Kara Lawson said. “I think the zone they were in tonight crowded the middle.”
And Alyssa Ustby, the Tar Heels senior star who shot 2 for 13 in the first game between the rivals was abusing Duke’s young forwards. She had six points in the first and knocked down a 3-pointer to make it 22-7 and Duke was staring a blow-out in the face.
But Duke started digging deep and clawing back.
“We got more stops,” Lawson said. “Our pace picked up and we hit some outside shots, which gave us some confidence.”
Sophomore wing Emma Koabel hit two 3-pointers to make it 24-15 and 24-18 and Duke was back in it. Duke didn’t have a single second-quarter turnover, hit 4 of 8 from beyond the arc and took a 31-30 lead into intermission.
The third quarter was a slugfest. Neither team led by more than three points. Ashlon Jackson hit a 3-pointer to tie the game at 46 going into the final period.
Duke could have, should have had the lead after Jadyn Donovan jumped the route and drove down court all by her lonesome.
And missed the gimme.
Then, as Lawson said “they played better down the stretch, plain and simple.” Carolina scored the first nine points of the final quarter and Duke was again playing catch up, on the road, in front of a raucous home crowd.
And almost pulled it off. Richardson made her only shot to make it 57-55, with 95 seconds left. But a travel on Brown and a missed 3 by Mair stalled the comeback.
Carolina’s Deja Kelly missed enough foul shots--4 for 9 on the night--to throw Duke a lifeline. Duke had the ball down 61-58. Carolina wouldn’t allow Duke to get off a potential tying 3-pointer. Mair was fouled, made the first, missed the second, Brown missed the follow shot and Kelly finished out the scoring from the line.
Jackson had 17 points and six assists for Duke but also four turnovers. Mair had a dozen points but five turnovers. Brown and Donovan each had eight rebounds as Duke edged Carolina on the boards 35-34.
And Donovan sure would like to have that missed layup back, two points just given away in a game where every point was at a premium.
Kelly and Ustby led Carolina with 18 and 17 points respectively.
Lawson cited Duke’s 13 second-half turnovers and Richardson’s inability to get into rhythm offensively.
“I’m not discouraged. Our team’s had a great year and we’re looking forward to Greensboro. There’s more urgency when you play in the post-season because you get one chance. That is what we’re hopefully going to have to work our way through, not after the game but while the game is going on because it’s going to be the first ACC Tournament for a lot of our players.
“I love my guys. They battled. This was a tough environment. They battled back multiple times. There is good in this for us. Also some learning. All that is great. Hopefully we’ll take all these lessons and carry them into the postseason.”
Duke’s postseason starts Thursday, 5 P.M. against the winner of Wednesday’s Pitt-Georgia Tech game.
Koabel has indeed made significant improvement from her freshman season. But assuming no unexpected attrition—never a wise assumption these days—she would only start next season if she can beat out two of Richardson, Jackson, Mair and Okananwa. And de Jesus might factor in here. If she can make that kind of jump, then Duke is going to be loaded on the perimeter.
Donovan is an interesting case. He shot outside of about five feet is simply an abomination. And it's not just aesthetics. She's 6-0 tall and hasn't attempted a single 3-pointer this season and she's hitting less than 40 percent from the line.
But there's so much to like. She's an exceptional run/jump athlete, fearless attacking the glass, can defend, rebound. She needs to improve her ball-handling and passing but can she improve her shooting without breaking it down and starting from scratch? And can she so that at this point in her career?
Ideally a player at her 6-0 height would be playing on the wing but this Duke team needs her to play inside and her strength and toughness have enabled her to effectively guard bigger players. But Duke is bringing in (at least) two outstanding post players taller than her. Will she stay at the 4? Can she become a wing?
Again, assuming no unexpected losses Lawson is going to have lots of options and much more experience next season. Not that I've checked out on this season. But going into the ACC Tournament this looks like an NCAA 6-seed or 7-seed and it's going to be tough to get out of the opening weekend unless they can get that turnover issue under control.
Our Duke girls dropped a tough one at Chapel Hill ... too many 2nd half mistakes to pull out the win -- but still there were inspiring moments. This is a team that has their great moments in almost every game. When their transition game clicks, and they play lockdown defense they are really fun to watch.
If this unit stays intact and the expected freshmen come in, this should be a hell of a team next season. Jadyn Donovan needs to develop a reliable shot both from the floor and at the free throw line -- if that happens she'll be an all ACC candidate. She already plays with abandon, is a shutdown defender, and a vicious rebounder. Emma Koabel has a good eye, and will have a chance to start next season. Richardson, Jackson, Thomas and Mair are solid players, and Okananwa plays like a bat out of hell.
I'm going to the Coliseum to watch them open on Thursday, and have some fun ... go Duke !