“It sucks to not get the win.”
It’s hard to sum up Duke’s 28-26 loss to Pittsburgh any better than DeWayne Carter’s comment moments after the game. In a game of one momentum switch after another, the game came down to a trio of two-point conversions. Pitt made theirs, Duke missed twice.
Maybe it should never have come down to that.
The Blue Devils did a lot of things that could have led to a victory. Sophomore wide receiver Jordan Moore had a career game, 14 catches, 199 yards. Duke’s defense shut out Pitt’s offense in the second half and Duke intercepted Kedon Slovis twice in the third period. Riley Leonard had three touchdown passes. Twice Duke took the lead in the first half but couldn’t hold it. Duke had the ball for almost eight more minutes than the run-dominant Panthers, picking up more first downs and more yards than the home team.
But the mistakes were huge. Somewhere in the multiverse Jalon Calhoun runs away from that bouncing punt inside the Duke 10, Jontavis Robertson doesn’t drop an easy catch in the end zone on fourth down and Jordan Waters doesn’t fumble into a scoop and score.
But not this one.
And, yes, Pitt made some mistakes, including a dropped snap on a fourth-quarter punt that gave Duke a short field that almost led to overtime.
I’m sure the weather had something to do with that, cold and windy and raw. Mike Elko said that explained Duke’s decision to go for two after a 49-yard Riley Leonard to Moore strike cut Pitt’s lead to 28-20.
“In our mind we were going to play that fourth quarter playing to win. We talked about it. From an analytic approach you’re going to go for two [down] 14 when you get that touchdown. We just didn’t feel like with the wind conditions and how we were struggling to run the football, we didn’t think overtime was going to be our best way to win that football game. That’s the reason for that decision.”
Duke came up empty and was forced to go for two down 28-26 in the final minute. Duke went cute, a reverse in which Moore had the run-pass option. But Pitt’s defense absolutely blew up that play and it never had a chance.
“Their defensive end just won clean on the back side,” Elko said.
Actually two defenders stopped Moore in his tracks.
Moore said that it was a great call and he probably could have done something better, which is absurd.
Elko said that Duke didn’t execute well in the first three quarters. Duke certainly never established any semblance of a running game.
“We really struggled to establish the line of scrimmage,” Elko lamented. “We couldn’t get the run game going.”
Elko added that Duke was going into a strong wind in the first and third quarters and needed to be able to run better to sustain any offense for those portions of the game.
Duke certainly had chances to take command of the game. Up 7-3 Duke got a stop but a punt (maybe) hit Jalon Calhoun on the leg. We never got clean look on replay and the play wasn’t reviewed.
Pitt’s star running back Israel Abanikanda waltzed into the end zone on the first play, from five yards out.
Abanikanda ended the game with 113 yards on 17 carries.
Aided by a roughing-the-kicker call, Duke regained the lead at 14-13 with less then three minutes in the half. But Pitt put together their only sustained touchdown drive of the game, 73 yards in 10 plays to take a 20-14 lead into the locker room.
“They put together a good drive at the end of the half,” DeWayne Carter said. “And obviously we’d like to have that one back.”
Duke befuddled Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis much of the game and picked him off twice in the third quarter, first Datrone Young and then Shaka Heyward. But Duke got no points out of either, with Robertson’s dropped pass a killer after Heyward’s pick.
Duke couldn’t score after Pitt’s two turnovers but Pitt converted on both of Duke’s into scores, Calhoun’s muff and Brandon Hill’s TD run on Waters’ fumble, which put Duke down two scores and led to the wild and wooly finish.
Duke drops to 7-4 overall, 4-3 in the ACC and drops down a bit in the ACC bowl pecking order. Like losses to Kansas and Georgia Tech and North Carolina, Duke had chances to pack it in and fought back to give themselves a chance to win. And Duke did eke out tight wins over Northwestern and Boston College. Six games decided in the final minute and Duke is 2-4 in those six games. Maybe flipping some of those close loses into close wins is the next step for this improving program.
But right now, this one, well “sucks.”
I understand going for two. But I don't understand going for two down 28-20. Save it for 28-27. Then you've got options. But when the weather is that bad a running game is a big advantage and Pitt had the better running game. They also have a better place-kicker. Remember faced with a similar situation in Atlanta Duke played it safe and ended up losing in OT. And that play-call on the second two-point conversion was a head-scratcher, IMO. Dance with who brung you and that was Leonard pitching to either Moore or Calhoun. IMO.
No question that falling behind by two scores and almost pulling it out is a lot better than falling behind by two scores and losing by four scores. Shows lots of growth as a program. Lots.
But it's still a loss.
Every team has at most 2-3 two-point plays they feel good about given their available players and matchups in a given week, and that hasn't changed with the new OT rules. Elko wisely went into the game with a strategy to give Duke the best chance to use those scarce plays to win, and he didn't second-guess himself when the situation arrived. He should do the same thing again the next time, and the next, and the next, and eventually fans will figure it out (or not).
In addition to wind, turf conditions at Heinz are notoriously erratic, to be charitable, and it looked like it'd been re-sodded between the numbers very recently. NFL kickers have all sorts of issues there, and I'm glad Elko took the opportunity to minimize the odds of it coming down to a kick taken either by a true freshman or a guy who's been away from the team for several weeks.
Depth was an issue, as expected, and the dropoff in the OL reared its head on the final 2 pointer. Pitt is a mature, well-coached team that won the ACC last year, and more than any game to date this was a reality check for how far we still have to go despite a great season. It sucks to lose another close one, but this was another case where a Duke team that would have folded in the past 5+ years hung in and gave themselves a chance at the end. That's another block to build on.