Can Duke football keep it going against Virginia Tech?
And end long home-losing streak against Hokies
History lesson One.
Duke defeated North Carolina 33-30 on October 20, 2012 when Jamison Crowder made a spectacular touchdown catch in the final seconds.
The win ended an eight-game Duke losing streak to the Tar Heels. It also gave Duke a 6-2 record, making Duke bowl eligible for the first time since 1994.
Duke didn’t win another game that season. They lost their final four regular-season games to Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami, only the Miami game (52-45) remotely close. A late fumble cost Duke a Belk-Bowl game against Cincinnati.
Duke finished 6-7. On the whole beating Carolina and ending the bowl drought resulted in a successful season. On the other hand, no team goes into a season with the goal of almost finishing .500.
Fast forward one season. After losing back-to-back games against Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh to go 2-2 Duke reeled off wins against Troy, Navy, Virginia and Virginia Tech to again reach 6-2.
But this time Duke kept it going, winning four more games to finish the regular season 10-2 and capture the Coastal Division title.
History lesson Two.
October 10, 1981. Duke defeated visiting Virginia Tech 14-7 when star cornerback Dennis Tabron picked off a Steve Casey pass and sprinted 10 yards into the end zone with 56 seconds left.
Duke hasn’t defeated the Hokies in Durham since then, nine straight losses, the most recent a 38-31 Tech win in a largely empty stadium in the 2020 COVID season.
.That wasn’t the only agonizing near-miss at Wade. In 1982 Duke blew a 21-0 lead and lost 22-21 on a last-minute touchdown and two-point conversion. Duke lost 17-16 in 2014 when Ross Martin--arguably the best place-kicker in Duke history--missed a 40-yard field goal with two minutes left. A Duke win would have given them another division title. Two years later Tech blocked a 29-yard field goal attempt by A.J. Reed and returned it for a touchdown, a 10-point turnaround in a game Duke lost 24-21. There was a 34-26 loss in 2009, a 14-10 setback in 2011.
Ironically, David Cutcliffe beat the Hokies three times in Blacksburg, including a 45-43 win in four overtimes in 2015.
But never in Durham.
The intersection of these two history lessons is this Saturday’s Duke-VT match at Duke. The 6-3 Devils are a 10-point favorite over the 2-7 Hokies.
Duke can’t go 10-2 in the regular season, as did the 2013 team. But nine wins is on the table. But not until and unless Duke wins number seven this week.
It’s easy to look at Tech as easy pickings. After all they only have two wins into the second week of November and they’ve been eliminated from bowl contention. But their last three losses have been 20-14 to Miami, 22-21 to NC State and 28-27 to Georgia Tech. The Hokies had big leads in their last two losses before falling at the end.
What happens if they figure out how to hold on to leads?
Hopefully, Duke won’t give them the chance.
Duke certainly will have to clean up some stuff from their 38-31 win at Boston College.
Mike Elko loved what his offense did in the first three quarters, not so much the fourth.
“I thought offensively we did a really good job being efficient in the red zone,” Elko told the media Monday. “I thought that was critical in the game. I thought we started fast again and that was really important. I think getting up 24-7 in the first half really kind of set the tone and then really kind of sustained it through the third quarter. Just a little disappointed with how we finished. I thought we'd finished games in the fourth quarter a little bit better than that, and we didn't really finish the way I wanted to.”
Conversely, he didn’t much care for his defense until the final quarter.
“I thought defensively, it was an interesting game because there was a lot of hit or miss stuff. We had more three-and-outs in that game than we had in any game prior to that. The drives that weren't three-and-out seem to end up in touchdowns. We've got to figure out still how to clean up some of the lack of execution that we have and some of the mistakes that allowed them to get going. Then again, a testament to our defense though, because in the fourth quarter, when we really needed them, we got it. We got three-straight stops and I thought that was critical.”
Duke got that early lead largely on the ground. Duke has turned into a formidable running team, ranking second in the ACC in rushing yards per game.
Andre Harris is one of the blockers making room for all those stud runners. The Arkansas State grad-student transfer says this is just how he expected it to play out when he came to Duke.
“Everybody preached that all off-season, physicality, physicality. We focused all summer on building power, just being powerful, being mean and aggressive and getting after somebody. Once we got through our first game I knew that this unit was nasty.”
Unfortunately Duke will have to keep the run-game going without four-year starter and co-captain Jacob Monk, who suffered a lower-body injury in the second period against BC. Monk kept playing and the severity of the injury didn’t become apparent until after the game when he had trouble walking.
Elko said that Justin Pickett is next-man-up. Pickett is a 6-7, 316-pound sophomore. Harris called Pickett “an animal. I tell people all the time, I tell him ‘you’re a first rounder.’ When he gets in a game he might get seven plays and out of those seven plays five of them will be pancakes. He’s going to do good.”
Harris added that Duke switches offensive lineman around in practice and “it’s worked out for us. Our coaches’ preparation for us to be able to play different positions and be versatile has worked out for us.”
But keep in mind that Duke has already lost guard Maurice McIntyre for the season. The bullpen is getting thin. Elko said that Duke is giving the backups a lot of work in practice. But a lot of those backups have very little game-time experience.
Duke will again be absent kicker Charlie Ham, out for personal reasons.
At the other end of the field Duke stuffed Boston College’s run game and sacked freshman quarterback Emmett Morehead five times.
But when Morehead wasn’t on his back, he was shredding Duke’s secondary, 330 passing yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions.
In fact, not a single turnover from a struggling offense starting a true freshman quarterback in his first college start.
Elko’s thoughts?
“I've been through a lot of games as a defensive coordinator where it doesn't turn out like you think it does with the first-time starter because you know, they make it easy, they make it one read, the ball either goes up high out of bounds or it goes up to their guy. They don't put it at risk. They didn't throw very many balls over the middle. They didn't throw very many RPOs. They didn't do a lot of things for him to risk the football.”
But Elko didn’t address the fact that Duke didn’t force a single fumble. And if the game plan was so simple, why was it so effective?
“We didn't play the ball well in the air. There were too many times where there were one-on-one opportunities that they came down with, and we didn't. I think that's why they were able to have success and more so than we wanted.”
Freshman cornerback Chandler Rivers says Duke has to do one thing better to flip that script against Virginia Tech.
“As a position group we need to be more aggressive at the point of attack. When the ball is in the air we need to feel like it’s our ball. That’s one thing we’ve been focusing on all week, being more aggressive, getting the ball out. Our priority is always to force turnovers.”
Tech quarterback Grant Wells has eight interceptions this season so the opportunities should be there.
On the other hand Kaleb Smith is one of the ACC’s best receivers, with 35 receptions for 647 yards. Duke needs to contain him.
There are other concerns. Tech’s defense blitzes a lot. The last time Duke played a team that blitzed a lot was the other Tech and Duke didn’t handle Georgia Tech’s blitz very well.
Elko said Duke will have to do better this week.
“They blitz probably more than any defense that we've seen so far this year. So, they're going to create a lot of problems for us that we're going to have to do a really good job handling.”
All concerned say that Duke isn’t going to get complacent with six wins.
Harris said that six wins is going to be the floor for this program, the bare minimum.
“That’s how we want to build a championship program. Getting that just makes us more excited to get more.”
“We keep wanting to find the time when this group is not going to show up and until they prove me wrong, they keep showing up,” Elko summed up. “There's not a lot of teams in the month of November that have a lot to play for. We're still playing for a nine-win season. We're still playing with an outside chance at the Coastal, but certainly a legit chance at the second-place spot in it, a better bowl opportunity, a better bowl trip. There's a lot on the line for us and there's not a lot of teams in the country that can say that right now. When you get into that spot where you get into the month of November, I think it's critical that you go out every week and you take advantage of these opportunities. I think our kids are hungry to do that.”
The mounting offensive line injuries are concerning but Andre Harris’ comments on Justin Picket makes him sound more than capable of stepping up.
I was hoping to read encouraging words about the running back rotation but now I have to opt for the “no news is good news” attitude.
On defense, we need to force turnovers. Duke’s margin for error is small so turnovers are critical as anyone who followed Duke the previous three seasons is well aware.
I sat through several losses to the Hokies in past seasons and really desire to walk out of Wallace Wade Stadium a winner on Saturday.
Thanks very much, Jim as usual.
I especially appreciate your extracting and conveying statements from players who have insightful, insider perspectives.
I've been an organizational consultant for many years, with an emphasis on leadership development and forging superior teams and organizations. With appropriate humility, I am confident that Coach Elko is creating, rapidly, a winning organization -- in his first year! He's just beginning to build the culture, managerial infrastructure AND recruiting prowess that augurs well for going Bowling continuously. Thank you, Coach Elko!